How Civil Wars Start

November 15, 2021
The idea that a second American civil war is brewing is not alarmist hyperbole. "We are no longer the world's oldest continuous democracy," writes Walter, a professor of international relations who has written multiple books about the mechanics of civil war. Instead, the U.S. is now an "anocracy," a democracy on the road to becoming an autocracy. Chalk much of that decline up to Trump, of course, and those who abetted his efforts to establish an autocracy and preserve it by means of a coup. The image that should be brought to mind is not of columns of blue- and gray-clad soldiers meeting on battlefields; instead, it lies in the scattered rubble of the federal building in Oklahoma City and the insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Walter locates similar circumstances in Ukraine and Myanmar, among other places where "elected leaders--many of whom are quite popular--start to ignore the guardrails that protect their democracies." Even though the number of democratic nations has grown markedly in the last century, the path to getting there is perilous, since entrenched power interests will always resist sharing their power. Another element of danger to popular rule is technological. "It's not likely to be a coincidence," writes the author, "that the global shift away from democracy has tracked so closely with the advent of the internet, the introduction of the iPhone, and the widespread use of social media." Amplifying radicalism and rewarding attack, such media undermine public trust and reinforce long-standing resentments, a critical component in an antinomian environment in which right-wingers "choose the strategy of the weak: guerrilla warfare and terrorism." Walter offers a few solutions: eliminating the Electoral College, reforming the Senate, and banning radical expression and disinformation campaigns on social media, for "curbing the dissemination of hate and disinformation would greatly reduce the risk of civil war." Arresting reading that identifies obstacles and dangers to democracy, many at the highest levels of government.

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November 15, 2021
Political scientist Walter (Committing to Peace) issues a stark and deeply informed warning that the U.S. may be headed for another civil war. Drawing on her extensive studies of foreign conflicts, Walter highlights factors that make countries susceptible to sectarian violence, including a government that is neither democratic nor totalitarian, loss of status by a historically dominant ethnic group, and the closing of political avenues for change. Explaining how social media foments political instability, Walter notes that Facebook and other companies showed little inclination to police calls to violence and ethnic cleansing in Myanmar, while providing a platform for anti-democratic political organizing even in countries with deep democratic traditions, such as Sweden. Drawing incisive parallels to societies in which ethnic grievances have been harnessed to mobilize armed forces for civil war, Walter notes the increasing visibility of right-wing militias in the U.S. Such groups—financed and abetted by white nationalists in other countries and America’s geopolitical rivals—could eventually engage in armed struggle against the government. To avoid civil war, Walter writes, America needs to improve its democratic institutions by making elections freer and more open and increasing civics education. Distinguished by its lucid analysis and global perspective, this wake-up call rings clear.

December 1, 2021

Political scientist Walter (Sch. of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego; Committing to Peace) has authored a solid contribution to the field of conflict studies. Her book's central objective is to place the potential for violent civil conflict within the United States into a broad comparative context with other nations in conflict. Traditionally, the basis of violent conflict lies in reinforcing social cleavages, and Walter's innovative account narrates the cumulative impact of recent developments, such as the rise of social media and its role in spreading misinformation, particularly relating to immigration. The author tells how violence clusters in "anocracies"; that is, in regimes in transition from having been more democratic or more authoritarian. Walter shows convincing evidence of the erosion of democracy in the United States and the resulting potential for violence, including her contention that destabilizing change is aggravated by "ethnic entrepreneurs"--a conflict studies term for those who use social media to mobilize fear and grievance. Walter's scenario for actual civil war is less convincing, but still deeply sobering. The book accomplishes two major objectives: effectively examining authoritarian themes and strategies practiced by some elements in the Republican Party; and suggesting prescriptive polices to arrest the erosion of American democracy. Walter's use of data and comparative slant should promote serious debate. VERDICT Highly recommended.--Zachary Irwin, formerly at Penn State Behrend

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